Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 136,731
2 South Dakota 134,486
3 Rhode Island 132,178
4 Utah 121,176
5 Tennessee 117,910
6 Arizona 116,262
7 Iowa 112,462
8 Oklahoma 111,677
9 Wisconsin 110,237
10 Nebraska 110,091
11 Arkansas 109,849
12 South Carolina 108,499
13 New Jersey 105,602
14 Alabama 105,533
15 Kansas 105,061
16 Indiana 103,494
17 Mississippi 103,022
18 Idaho 102,212
19 Illinois 100,143
20 Delaware 99,656
21 Nevada 99,325
22 New York 98,872
23 Montana 98,860
24 Georgia 98,366
25 Wyoming 97,968
26 Florida 97,623
27 Kentucky 97,195
28 Texas 97,101
29 Louisiana 96,294
30 Missouri 96,027
31 Minnesota 94,462
32 Massachusetts 94,388
33 California 93,328
34 New Mexico 92,038
35 Connecticut 89,408
36 North Carolina 88,746
37 Ohio 88,190
38 Alaska 87,192
39 Pennsylvania 82,807
40 Colorado 82,294
41 West Virginia 80,559
42 Michigan 79,608
43 Virginia 73,710
44 Maryland 69,588
45 District of Columbia 64,226
46 New Hampshire 63,936
47 Washington 49,167
48 Puerto Rico 45,180
49 Oregon 39,862
50 Maine 39,188
51 Vermont 32,760
52 Hawaii 21,578

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 891
2 Rhode Island 556
3 Connecticut 449
4 New Jersey 404
5 Minnesota 377
6 Alaska 363
7 Massachusetts 355
8 Pennsylvania 348
9 New York 330
10 Tennessee 281
11 North Carolina 278
12 New Hampshire 266
13 Idaho 252
14 Illinois 236
15 Oklahoma 232
16 Florida 231
17 South Dakota 231
18 North Dakota 230
19 Delaware 227
20 Maine 226
21 South Carolina 217
22 Ohio 195
23 Colorado 182
24 Maryland 176
25 Washington 174
26 Nebraska 171
27 West Virginia 170
28 Montana 159
29 Louisiana 156
30 Vermont 156
31 Virginia 156
32 Iowa 154
33 Texas 149
34 Wyoming 145
35 Kentucky 141
36 Wisconsin 139
37 District of Columbia 137
38 New Mexico 133
39 Indiana 126
40 Georgia 120
41 Utah 112
42 Kansas 107
43 Oregon 98
44 Missouri 95
45 Arizona 88
46 Puerto Rico 88
47 Nevada 80
48 California 65
49 Mississippi 58
50 Hawaii 50
51 Arkansas 49
52 Alabama 43

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,785
2 New York 2,587
3 Massachusetts 2,518
4 Rhode Island 2,487
5 Mississippi 2,377
6 Arizona 2,339
7 Connecticut 2,225
8 Louisiana 2,190
9 South Dakota 2,190
10 Alabama 2,172
11 Pennsylvania 1,979
12 North Dakota 1,967
13 Indiana 1,945
14 New Mexico 1,890
15 Arkansas 1,875
16 Illinois 1,870
17 Iowa 1,849
18 South Carolina 1,789
19 Georgia 1,762
20 Michigan 1,738
21 Tennessee 1,738
22 Nevada 1,723
23 Kansas 1,692
24 Texas 1,692
25 Oklahoma 1,685
26 Delaware 1,609
27 Ohio 1,603
28 Florida 1,574
29 District of Columbia 1,524
30 West Virginia 1,518
31 California 1,517
32 Missouri 1,466
33 Kentucky 1,409
34 Montana 1,394
35 Maryland 1,387
36 Wisconsin 1,263
37 Minnesota 1,238
38 Virginia 1,220
39 Wyoming 1,211
40 Nebraska 1,184
41 North Carolina 1,166
42 Idaho 1,110
43 Colorado 1,075
44 New Hampshire 919
45 Washington 703
46 Puerto Rico 670
47 Utah 667
48 Oregon 579
49 Maine 555
50 Alaska 408
51 Vermont 368
52 Hawaii 327

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Oklahoma 144
2 Montana 7
3 Kentucky 6
4 West Virginia 5
5 New Jersey 4
6 Massachusetts 3
7 Michigan 3
8 Nevada 3
9 New York 3
10 Oregon 3
11 Tennessee 3
12 Virginia 3
13 California 2
14 Connecticut 2
15 District of Columbia 2
16 Florida 2
17 Georgia 2
18 Idaho 2
19 Maryland 2
20 Mississippi 2
21 New Mexico 2
22 North Carolina 2
23 Ohio 2
24 Pennsylvania 2
25 Texas 2
26 Alabama 1
27 Arizona 1
28 Arkansas 1
29 Illinois 1
30 Indiana 1
31 Iowa 1
32 Louisiana 1
33 Minnesota 1
34 Puerto Rico 1
35 Rhode Island 1
36 South Carolina 1
37 Washington 1
38 Alaska 0
39 Colorado 0
40 Delaware 0
41 Hawaii 0
42 Kansas 0
43 Maine 0
44 Missouri 0
45 Nebraska 0
46 New Hampshire 0
47 North Dakota 0
48 South Dakota 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 353,902 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 331,439 2 99
Bent Colorado 266,272 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 244,908 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 244,472 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 137,300 195 93
Richland South Carolina 106,607 1019 67
York South Carolina 103,442 1171 62
Orange California 84,156 2070 34
Pierce Washington 48,452 2899 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Gove Kansas 8,346 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,509 1788 43
Davidson Tennessee 1,320 2019 35
York South Carolina 1,295 2051 34
Richland South Carolina 1,275 2070 34
Pierce Washington 682 2725 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons